Super Bowl Outlook

It’s that time of the year when the biggest game in our favorite sports crowns it’s champion.  I am amazed how many people think that just because I have 3 decades of coaching little kids, I should know who will win the Super Bowl.  Give me a break!  Pee wee football is nothing like the NFL, college or even high school ( at least at the younger levels).

Let’s face the facts in little kid football…the team with the most talent wins 99% of the time.  The teams with the biggest fastest kids are going to win.  There is no “magic” system that makes fatter slower kids qual to stronger faster kids.  Coaching can ruin good talent, but it cannot overcome no talent.  As youth coaches or goals should be on player development first and winning second.  Everyone likes to win, but make sure it is done in the proper manner.

As far as the NFL goes, nobody knows who will win especially in the Super Bowl.  You always have two teams with tons of talent that are playing hot at the right time.  ”Everybody” knows who’s going to win, but last time I checked the casinos in Vegas keep getting bigger.  Point is NO ONE knows who will win.

That said, here’s some food for thought on Sunday’s game ( I never said it wasn’t fun to try and figure it out).

Eli Manning during a 2007 training camp

Image via Wikipedia

Can you imagine Eli Manning owning more Super Bowl rings than his broth- er Peyton? Wow, what a BAD off-season this can be for Peyton!

It could happen if Eli is able to lead the Giants past the Patriots like he did when New York upset the Patriots, 17-14, four years ago in the Super Bowl.

The public opinion loves the Giants. The Giants still have 15 players from that Super Bowl champion squad. Manning threw a 13-yard touchdown pass with 35 seconds to go to beat the Patriots in their first Super Bowl meeting. Manning also threw a one-yard touchdown pass with 15 sec- onds left to beat the Patriots, 24-20, in Foxboro this past Nov. 6.  The Giants are beating the hottest teams in the league on the ROAD in Green Bay and San Francisco.

Some believe styles make a match and the Patriots just do not match up well versus the Giants.

Now the teams meet indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, a fast track.The regular-sea- son record shows New York just 9-7. That record means nothing now. The Giants have been playing better than any team putting together a clutch five- game winning streak beating the Jets by 15, Cowboys by 14, Falcons by 22, Packers by 17 and the 49ers in the NFC title game by three in overtime.

Manning has thrived as a road playoff  underdog winning six of seven times.

The Giants sacked Tom Brady five times when they beat the Giants in their first Super Bowl meetting. Certainly the Giants can do it again with their defensive line playing as well as it has all season thanks to the return to health of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora.

The Patriots have to account for emerging superstar Jason Pierre- Paul, who had a breakout season with 16 and one-half sacks. New England couldn’t beat the Giants four years ago when it had a better defense and a record-setting offense led by Brady and Randy Moss. So it’s fair to ask how can the Patriots beat the Giants now when Manning is off his finest season and New York has better wideouts with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz than it had four years ago.

Sounds like a Giant runaway, and that’s what the public thinks.  How the can Patriots evan have a chance?

The answer is Brady, Bill Belichick and a New England defense that is playing its best ball, too. Manning is close to being an elite quarterback. Brady is elite ranking with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the highest tier.

The Patriots were the only team to have three receivers gain more than 900 yards with Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Tight ends Gronkowski and Hernandez are matchup nightmares. Gronkowski easily broke the record for touchdown receptions in a season for tight ends with 17. He’s having a monster postseason, too, with 15 receptions for 232 yards and three touchdowns.

San Francisco’s athletic and speedy tight end Vernon Davis burned the Giants for two touchdowns and 112 yards receiving in the NFC Championship Game.

That’s a harbinger of things to come.

The Giants are going to have problems with Gronkowski and Hernandez just like they did handling Davis. Sparked by Brady and Gronkowski, the Patriots finished No. 2 in total offense and passing offense,while averaging a third-highest 32.1 points per game. Brady smashed Dan Marino passing yardage mark with 5,239 yards, while connecting on 39 touchdowns. Brady has accounted for another seven touchdowns in New England’s two playoff victories.

The ground games are close to even between the two teams.Ahmad Bradshaw is the best runner, but New England has the edge in running back depth.The Patriots’ leading rusher, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, has never fumbled in his NFL career.

The Giants have a flashier defense and more big-name stars. New England, though, has a very steady veteran offensive line that doesn’t get rattled giving up the ninth-fewest sacks.

The Giants’ back-seven defensive players aren’t nearly as good as their front four.  READ THIS SENTENCE OVER AND OVER AGAIN.

New York doesn’t have one game-changing player in its defensive back seven. The Giants yielded 4,082 yards through the air, which was the fourth-worst. Brees, Rodgers and Tony Romo all ripped up the Giants during a late November-to-early-December stretch throwing for a combined 1,037 yards and 12 touchdowns.

New York has tightened its defense since then, but the point is the Giants are vulnerable to great quarterbacks when there isn’t heavy pressure being generated from their defensive line.

New England Patriots at Washington Redskins 08...

Image via Wikipedia

New England’s defense also has stepped up during the later stages.The Patriots give up lots of yardage, but are respectable in key areas. For instance, the Patriots ranked 15th in points allowed, were 14th in sacks and had 34 takeaways. Only two teams had more takeaways. Only one team has scored more than 24 points on New England since Week 3 and that was the Redskins putting up 27.

The Patriots held their two playoff foes – Denver and Baltimore – to a combined 30 points. New England was penalized only three times for a meager 25 yards in those two playoff games.

Yes, the Giants have a far more explosive offense than Denver and Baltimore. But give us Belichick over any coach when it comes to having two weeks to prepare. No knock on Giants coach Tom Coughlin, who has done a wonderful job of getting New York to perform at its highest level at just the right time. It’s just that Brady trumps all.

The Patriots were leading their last matchup with three minutes to go and this was after four turnovers.

My philosophy in life, that has served me well, is to zig when everyone else zags. Everyone loves the Giants so I’ll take the Patriots.

It has been four years. But, at last, the Patriots will get their Super Bowl revenge on Coughlin and the Giants thanks to their Hall of Fame quarterback and coach.

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